INSIDE THE LINES
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 15
Updated by 2:00 P.M. Eastern Weekdays
Updated by 9:00 A.M. Eastern Weekends
NBA
New Orleans (49-32, 34-35-2 ATS) at San Antonio (52-38, 40-39-2 ATS)
Two teams fighting for playoff positioning in the jumbled Western Conference are set to duel at the AT&T Center, where the Spurs host the Hornets on the final night of the NBA’s regular season.
San Antonio is tied with Houston atop the Southwest Division standings, but the Rockets hold the tiebreaker edge, meaning the Spurs have to win tonight and hope Houston loses at Dallas to claim the division title. The Spurs, who currently are fifth in the Western Conference playoff standings, will enter the playoffs as the No. 3, 4 or 5 seed. Meanwhile, New Orleans is tied with Dallas for the sixth seed in the Western Conference, and depending on tonight’s results will finish as either the No. 6 or 7 seed.
One night after a controversial last-second 95-92 win at Sacramento, San Antonio made the short trek south to Golden State on Monday and destroyed the Warriors 101-72 as a four-point road favorite. The Spurs have won three in a row, but despite Monday’s easy spread-cover, they’re still just 6-11 ATS in their last 17 games, covering in back-to-back contests just once during this stretch. Additionally, Gregg Popovich’s team is just 4-5 SU and 2-7 ATS in its last nine at home.
The Hornets followed up Sunday’s impressive 10-point home win over Dallas with Monday’s ugly 86-66 loss at the Rockets as an eight-point road underdog. New Orleans has dropped five of its last seven games both SU and ATS, and it is just 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS in its last eight on the highway.
San Antonio outlasted the Hornets in a seven-game Western Conference semifinal series last year, but New Orleans has won two of three clashes this season (SU and ATS), both at home. In fact, the host is 11-1 SU and ATS in the last 12 series meetings, the lone exception being the Spurs’ Game 7 win in New Orleans last May. Additionally, the favorite has covered in eight of the last 10 meetings, and the SU winner is 10-0 ATS during that stretch. Finally, the Hornets have failed to win or cover in five straight visits to San Antonio.
New Orleans is in ATS funks of 2-5 overall, 2-6 on the highway, 5-12 after a SU defeat, 3-7 against winning teams and 1-5 versus the Western Conference. The Spurs also carry nothing but negative pointspread trends, including 2-7 at home, 3-7 when playing on one day of rest, 3-10 when playing on Wednesday, 2-5 versus winning teams, 1-4 after a SU victory and 0-4 after a spread-cover.
Six of the last seven meetings in this rivalry have stayed below the total. Also, the under is on runs for San Antonio of 4-1 in divisional games, 4-0-1 after a SU win, 6-1 against winning teams, while New Orleans is riding “under” streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-0 as a visitor, 18-6-1 against Southwest Division rivals, 10-4 against the Western Conference and 6-1 when facing opponents with a winning record.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN ANTONIO and UNDER
Houston (53-28, 40-40-1 ATS) at Dallas (49-32, 39-42 ATS)
The Rockets control their own destiny as it pertains to the Southwest Division title when they visit the rival Mavericks to close out the regular season.
Houston moved a step closer to clinching the division title and possibly even the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference with Monday’s 86-66 destruction of the Hornets, covering easily as an eight-point home favorite. The Rockets, who have won five in a row (4-1 ATS), can beat out the Spurs for the Southwest title with a victory over the Mavericks, but a loss could drop them all the way into the No. 5 slot in the playoff seedings.
Dallas barely edged Minnesota 96-94 on Monday, falling way short as an 11½-point home favorite. The Mavericks, who will either be the No. 6 or No. 7 seed in the playoffs, have won four of their last five and six of their last eight, but they’ve followed up a 3-0 ATS run with consecutive non-covers. However, the Mavs have won five straight home games (3-2 ATS) and are 14-1 SU and 10-5 ATS in their last 15 inside American Airlines Center, scoring at least 100 points in 13 of those 15 contests.
The road team took the first two meetings in the season series between these clubs, but the Rockets took care of business at home in the most recent battle Feb. 20, winning 93-86 as a four-point chalk. Houston has won three of the last four series meetings both SU and ATS after the Mavericks had gone 6-0 SU and ATS in the previous six. Despite their recent success in this rivalry, the Rockets are still just 4-10 ATS in the last 14 series meetings.
Additionally, the road team and the underdog are both 5-1 ATS in the last six Houston-Dallas clashes.
Despite cashing in four of its last five games overall, Houston is still mired in ATS slumps of 1-4 on the road, 1-6 on Wednesday, 8-18-1 after a double-digit win and 9-22-1 after an ATS triumph. The Mavs have cashed in 15 of their last 20 after a non-cover and 17 of their last 22 on Wednesday, but they’re only 2-7 ATS in their last nine against divisional foes.
The over is 4-1 in the last five series meetings in Dallas, and the over is 9-4 in the Mavericks’ last 13 home games overall, 6-2 in their last eight on Wednesday and 5-2 in Houston’s last seven against the Western Conference.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Denver (54-27, 44-36-1 ATS) at Portland (53-28, 45-36 ATS)
Having clinched the Northwest Division title and matched the franchise record for wins in a season, the Nuggets now will try to put the finishing touches on the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference when they visit the Rose Garden for a battle with the Trail Blazers.
J.R. Smith scored 45 points to lead Denver to an easy 118-98 victory over Sacramento on Monday, covering as a 17-point home favorite. With the rout of the Kings, the Nuggets, who are on a 14-2 SU run (10-6 ATS), won a division title and earned home-court advantage for a playoff series for the first time in 21 years. They can clinch the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference with a victory tonight or a Houston loss in Dallas. At worst, George Karl’s club will enter the postseason as the No. 3 seed.
Portland posted its own blowout home win Monday, a 113-83 laugher over Oklahoma City as a 12½-point chalk. Like Denver, the Blazers are finishing the season with a flourish, having won five in a row (4-1 ATS) and nine of their last 10 (8-2 ATS), and they’re 5-0 SU and ATS at home during this span.
Even though Portland can match Denver’s season record with a victory tonight, the Nuggets hold the tiebreaker edge in the division standings. Therefore, Nate McMillan’s squad, which is returning to the postseason for the first time since 2002-03, will either be the No. 4 or 5 seed in the playoffs depending on various results tonight.
The home team has held serve in this rivalry so far this season, with Denver going 2-0 SU and ATS on its floor and the Blazers posting a 101-92 victory as an eight-point favorite in the lone previous meeting in Portland. The host has won eight of the last 10 clashes (5-5 ATS), but the Nuggets are 24-9-1 ATS in the past 34 head-to-head matchups, including 11-4-1 in their last 16 visits to Portland.
The Nuggets are on ATS tears of 8-3 overall, 4-1 on the road, 4-0 after one day of rest, 8-2 versus the Western Conference and 4-1 against teams with a winning record. In addition to cashing in four straight overall and five straight at home, Portland is on positive pointspread rolls of 5-2 against division rivals and 6-1 after a spread-cover. However, neither team has done well at the betting window on Wednesdays of late, with Denver going 1-4 ATS in its last five and the Blazers going 4-9 ATS in their last 13.
The under is on streaks of 4-1 in this rivalry, 11-3 for Portland against Northwest Division opponents, 49-22-1 for Portland on Wednesday and 4-1 for the Nuggets on the road. However, the over is on upticks of 20-8 for Denver when playing after one day off and 6-1 for the Blazers at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Florida (6-1) at Atlanta (5-2)
The red-hot Marlins send southpaw Andrew Miller (0-0, 3.86 ERA) to the mound opposite the Braves’ Derek Lowe (1-0, 0.82) in the middle game of a three-game series between division rivals at Turner Field.
Florida got yet another outstanding starting pitching effort in Tuesday’s series opener, this time from Chris Volstad, who allowed just three hits and a run over seven innings en route to a 5-1 victory. The Marlins have the best record in baseball, and they’re doing with both starting pitching and a potent offense that’s scored 42 runs in seven games. Going back to last season, Florida is on runs of 7-1 overall (all against the N.L. East), 13-3 following a victory, 6-0 on Wednesday and 5-1 as an underdog.
Atlanta had its three-game winning streak snapped in Tuesday’s loss, and it was the first time all season the Braves – who entered yesterday’s game with a .300 team batting average– had scored fewer than four runs. Atlanta is still on streaks of 5-1 at home, 7-2 against N.L. East rivals and 4-1 versus lefty starters, but Bobby Cox’s club has dropped nine of its last 11 on Wednesday.
Although the Braves won the season series from Florida last year 10-8, the Marlins have now taken four of the past six meetings. Still, Atlanta is 36-16 in the past 52 matchups with the Fish at Turner Field.
Miller’s two appearances this year have come out of the bullpen, and he’s surrendered a run on five hits and two walks in 2 1/3 innings. He struggled in a starting role in his first season with Florida a year ago, registering just three quality starts in his last 10. However, the lefty is 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA in four career appearances (two starts) against Atlanta, including a 7-2 road win last April.
With Miller starting, the Marlins are mired in slumps of 0-5 overall (all as an underdog) and 0-4 on the road (all as an underdog).
Lowe was brilliant in his Braves debut on April 5 (two hits allowed in eight scoreless innings of a 4-1 win Philadelphia), but a rain delay forced the veteran right-hander out of his most recent start against Washington on Friday. He allowed a run on four hits with six strikeouts, getting a no-decision as Atlanta pulled out a 6-5 home victory.
Lowe is 5-4 with a 4.23 ERA in 14 career games (nine starts) against Florida, and he’s 2-2 with a 3.50 ERA in his career at Turner Field.
Tuesday’s contest stayed below the total, making the under 5-1 in the last six Braves-Marlins meetings. Also, Florida sports “under” streaks of 8-0 as an underdog and 8-0 against winning teams. On the flip side, the over is 4-0 in the Marlins’ last four on Wednesday, 9-3-3 in Miller’s last 13 starts overall and 5-1-2 in his last eight on the road. Also, for the Braves, the “over” is on runs 11-5 at home and 8-3 as a favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
L.A. Angels (3-4) at Seattle (6-2)
Jarrod Washburn (1-0, 0.00 ERA) is set to oppose his former team for the 11th time in the last three-plus years as he leads the streaking Mariners against Jered Weaver (1-0, 0.00 ERA) and the Angels in the middle game of a three-game set at Safeco Field.
Seattle’s home opener Tuesday was a successful one, as it scored on an error in the bottom of the 10th inning to beat Los Angeles 3-2 and run its winning streak to five in a row. The Mariners, who had the worst record in the American League last season, have given up a total of just 10 runs in their six victories, including a pair of shutouts. Dating to last season, Seattle has won seven straight games against A.L. West foes.
The Angels have alternated wins and losses in their last five contests, and Tuesday’s two-run effort was their lowest output of the season and snapped a five-game streak of scoring at least four runs. However, Mike Scioscia’s squad remains on hot streaks of 8-3 on the road, 35-17 against the Mariners (7-2 in the last nine overall) and 7-2 in Seattle.
Washburn was magnificent in his season debut Thursday in Minnesota, scattering five hits and a walk over eight scoreless innings in a 2-0 road win. Going back to his final start of 2008 on Aug. 30, the southpaw has pitched 14 2/3 scoreless innings, giving up just eight hits while striking out 12. Also, he’s delivered five quality starts in his last six outings. Despite all that, the Mariners are in funks of 11-27 with Washburn on the hill overall and 3-13 when Washburn starts at home.
Washburn, who broke into the big leagues with the Angels, is 4-5 with a 4.31 ERA in his 10 career starts against his former mates, including 0-3 with a 4.42 ERA last year. Also, he was just 2-7 with a bloated 5.40 ERA in 11 home starts last season.
Like Washburn, Weaver was dominant in his first outing of 2009, giving up just one unearned run on four hits over 6 2/3 innings while striking out eight as the Angels beat Boston 6-3 at home in their first game following the tragic death of young pitcher Nick Adenhart. Weaver has surrendered three earned runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts dating to mid-August.
Weaver is 6-2 in his brief career against the Mariners, despite a hefty 5.07 ERA over 11 starts. That includes a 3-2 mark and a 5.86 ERA in seven outings in Seattle. Last year on the road, Weaver was 5-5 with a 4.91 ERA in 16 starts, including 1-1 with a 7.79 ERA in three games at Safeco.
Tuesday’s contest stayed well under the total. However, the over is still 10-3 in the last 13 Angels-Mariners battles at Safeco, 9-0 in Weaver’s last nine starts against the Mariners and 6-0 in Weaver’s last six trips to Seattle. Also, as a team, the Angels are on “over” streaks of 5-1-1 overall, 9-3 on Wednesday and 7-3 versus A.L. West rivals. Meanwhile, Seattle sports “over” trends of 9-5 overall, 7-2 on Wednesday, 7-2 against the A.L. West, 5-2 at home and 7-2 against right-handed starters.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
